Nick Herbig’s $100 Million Extension Is a Bet on a Double-Digit Sack Breakout

Nick Herbig's $100 Million Extension Is a Bet on a Double-Digit Sack Breakout

The Pittsburgh Steelers did not give Nick Herbig a four-year, $100 million extension simply to remain their third outside linebacker. The deal, which reportedly includes $42 million guaranteed, is a major investment in what Pittsburgh believes Herbig can become with a larger role.

Herbig already produced 7.5 sacks in 2025 while playing only about 52% to 53% of the Steelers’ defensive snaps. Now the question is unavoidable: If he can create that much disruption in a rotational role, what happens when Pittsburgh gives him starter-level opportunities?

Herbig’s efficiency made the extension possible

The traditional numbers were strong. Herbig finished the 2025 regular season with 30 tackles, 7.5 sacks, three forced fumbles, an interception and a defensive touchdown despite appearing in only 15 games.

The deeper analytics make his season look even better. Herbig led NFL edge rushers with a 26.3% pass-rush win rate, according to ESPN Analytics. Pro Football Focus credited him with 47 total pressures on 353 pass-rush snaps and gave him an 87.1 pass-rush grade, eighth among 115 qualified edge defenders.

Those numbers show why Pittsburgh was willing to pay before Herbig became a full-time starter. He did not merely collect a few sacks in favorable situations. He consistently beat blockers and affected quarterbacks at one of the league’s highest rates.

More snaps could produce a double-digit sack season

Herbig’s path to double-digit sacks does not require an unrealistic leap. He needs only 2.5 more sacks than he recorded in 2025, and an expanded role should create enough additional pass-rush opportunities to reach that mark.

He totaled 610 defensive snaps last season, compared with 811 for T.J. Watt. Herbig also generated more pressures than Watt, 47 to 46, despite rushing the passer far less often. Alex Highsmith recorded 9.5 sacks, but Herbig finished with more total pressures than Highsmith as well.

Production never scales perfectly with playing time. A larger workload brings more attention from offenses, more run-defense responsibilities and fewer chances to stay fresh. Still, Herbig’s underlying numbers provide room for some efficiency decline. Even if his win rate falls as his snap count rises, the added opportunities could push him past 10 sacks.

Herbig has already answered the small-sample concern

Herbig’s impact is no longer based on one short stretch. His defensive workload increased from 191 snaps as a rookie in 2023 to 416 in 2024 and 610 in 2025. His sack total rose from three to 5.5 to 7.5 over the same span.

Across the past two seasons, Herbig has recorded 13 sacks, 81 pressures and seven forced fumbles on 532 pass-rush snaps. The pressure rate dipped slightly as his role grew, which is expected, but it remained excellent. More importantly, he continued converting disruption into game-changing plays.

That forced-fumble production is especially valuable in Pittsburgh. Herbig has nine forced fumbles through his first three seasons, giving the Steelers another edge defender capable of changing possession rather than simply forcing an incomplete pass.

Pittsburgh must find enough work for its three edge rushers

The contract creates a fascinating challenge for the Steelers. Watt, Highsmith and Herbig now account for $83 million in average annual salary, making them one of the NFL’s most expensive edge-rushing groups. Pittsburgh cannot justify that investment by treating Herbig like an ordinary backup.

The Steelers can rotate all three to keep them fresh, use creative third-down packages and move Herbig around the formation. His athleticism also gives the defense flexibility to occasionally drop him into coverage without making his presence predictable.

Herbig may not immediately play every down, but his new contract makes the organization’s long-term view clear. Pittsburgh sees a foundational pass rusher entering his prime, not merely quality depth behind two established starters.

The $100 million bet could pay off quickly

Paying $25 million per year for a player who has never started a full season carries risk. It also gives the Steelers a chance to secure a rapidly improving 24-year-old before his raw production catches up with his analytics.

Herbig has already shown that he can win at an elite rate, generate pressure and force turnovers while playing barely half the snaps. If Pittsburgh expands his role in 2026, his first double-digit sack season should be viewed as a realistic expectation rather than an optimistic projection.

Contract figures were reported by ESPN, NFL Network and Spotrac. Statistics and analytics are through the 2025 regular season and were reported by ESPN Analytics, Pro Football Focus and Pro Football Reference.